Sweden holds legislative elections on Sunday, with polls predicting a parliamentary deadlock as neither Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s left-wing bloc nor the opposition centre-right are seen winning a majority, while the far-right makes gains.
“It’s difficult to single out the most likely (government) scenario” after the election, University of Gothenburg political scientist Ulf Bjereld told AFP.
“Instead you have to look for the least unlikely scenarios,” he said.
One thing is certain: Sweden is headed for a period of uncertainty, with a weak minority government triggering fears of new elections, at a time when economists are forecasting a likely downturn during the next four-year mandate.
Traditionally in Sweden after the election, the outgoing speaker of parliament consults with party leaders to nominate a candidate for prime minister tasked with forming a government.
Parliament votes on the speaker’s choice, and can reject his proposal four times, after which new elections must be called. Sweden has not held a snap election since 1958.
Skop poll, 3-Sep-2018:
Sweden, Skop poll:
S-S&D: 23% (-1)
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 3, 2018
Ipsos poll – Share of voters of parties belonging to the Alliance block saying yes to cooperation with SD-ECR
Sweden, Ipsos poll:
Share of voters of parties belonging to the Alliance block saying yes to cooperation with SD-ECR
KD-EPP: 72 %
M-EPP: 64 %
L-ALDE: 25 %
C-ALDE: 8 %
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 3, 2018
The post-election scenario seen as most likely by political observers is a new Lofven government, albeit with an even weaker minority than it has now.
The outgoing “red-green” bloc — made up of the governing Social Democrats and the Greens, with the informal support in parliament of the ex-communist Left Party — is leading in the polls ahead of the centre-right Alliance.
If Lofven were to stay in power with a weakened minority, he would likely try to rally the support of two Alliance members, the Centre Party and the Liberals, to pass legislation, finding common ground on issues like immigration, integration and gender equality.
The far-right Sweden Democrats however have vowed to topple a minority left-wing government, for example during the vote on the autumn budget bill.
The conservative Moderates Party leader Ulf Kristersson is intent on ousting Lofven.
Despite some ideological differences, notably on immigration, the four centre-right Alliance parties which governed between 2006 and 2014 (the Moderates, Centre, Liberals and Christian Democrats) have agreed to build a coalition government.
Easier said than done: the Alliance would need the support of the far-right to pass legislation, and the far-right would make demands in exchange for its backing.
It would either ask for policy concessions — which the four parties have so far ruled out — or key positions on parliamentary commissions that draft legislation.
One uncertainty in this scenario is the score of the Christian Democrats.
Opinion polls have long credited the party with less than the 4% required to be represented in parliament, though towards the end of the campaign they appeared to be comfortably above the bar.
If the two previous scenarios were to fail, the Social Democrats could choose to invite the Liberal and Centre parties to the negotiating table.
While Lofven has insisted that he wants to continue to govern with the Greens, he has not ruled out such a possibility. They would have to overcome major differences though, in particular on the budget.
Such a collaboration would signal the end of the centre-right Alliance.
With a wave of populism
sweeping across many countries
in recent years,
some political analysts have suggested
that opinion polls may be underestimating
support for the
far-right Sweden Democrats (SD).
They have not ruled out the possibility the SD could end up being the biggest party.
However, SD would find itself isolated, unable to build a government or majority in parliament.
The head of the party, Jimmie Akesson, doesn’t believe in such a scenario himself, seeing instead a collaboration with the Moderates in such a case.
Repost from Times of India
More Posts by This Writer
- An Empowering Means to Protect Yourself, Family, and Friends from COVID-19
- If Liberals Hate POTUS This Much, To What Level Of Hate Do They Have for Those On This List?
- What Liberty, Even Decisive Liberty, Is Not
- WikiLeaks Drops Proof That NYTimes Colluded With Hillary Clinton
- Questions to Ask About Palestine — or About Any Country — Claiming History and Sovereignty
- Restarting Our Feeds; Why WHO and Their Pandemic Call is Fake News
- An Open Letter To Dennis Prager And Dave Rubin
- What You Probably Did Not Know About the 56 Signers of Our Declaration of Independence
- Wall Street, Main Street, and Global Economics With a Donald Trump Victory…
- How Prepared Is Your Community for a Coronavirus Pandemic?
- Weapons of Mass Deception Goes Beyond the News – Why You Should Totally Avoid MSM
- Assistant FBI Direct McCabe: I’m leaving office in March – President Trump: NO DEAL
- Cliven and Ryan Bundy Interview – Freedom, Liberty, Dismissal
- The Prejudice of CNN in ‘Breaking’ the Slave Trade in Libya
- Center for Security Policy Occasional Paper Exposes a Perfect Storm of Threat
- The Right Questions and Irrefutable Evidence Are Being Ignored by Palestinian As Well As Muslim Leaders
- What You Need to Know About North Korea’s Missile Program
- Economists Now Say Brexit Doom-and-Gloom Forecasts Were Wrong
- The Logan Act – Using a Dead Letter Law to Bludgeon Trump
- As Smith Heads to DC, Questions Linger Over Her Replacement
- House Expands Russia Probe to FBI, Justice Use of Unconfirmed Dossier to Snare President Trump
- Germany Fines Social Media Sites For Not Deleting ‘Hate Speech’
- Can’t Fight Something You Don’t Know About
- Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman – Friend or Foe of the U.S.?
- Watchdog Sues for Records Related to Flynn Conversations with Russian ambassador
- Congratulation to Hillel Neuer and His Team – U.N. Watch Turned 25
- I Am A Recovered Muslim
- Why Indonesia Showing Solidarity for the Palestinian Cause, Though Understandable, Is a Huge Mistake
- A New Year’s Message for All from Iran
- Trump State Department Supports Iran Protesters, Says Iran Exports ‘Bloodshed’
- Why U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras Recusal From Mike Flynn Case is a Big Deal
- Argentina’s Fernandez Charged with Treason, Arrest Sought
- Veteran’s Day 2019
- DEVELOPING: Kathy Hall Gone Missing Enroute to SCOTUS to Assist In Lawsuit Against Arkansas CPS
- Are Opinion Polls Underestimating Support For the Sweden Democrats?
- Where are George Soros, Hillary Clinton, Podesta brothers?
- Author Vanessa Neumann Shares a Passage of "Blood Profits" (How You Are Unwittingly Funding Terrorists)
- The Legacy the Clinton’s left in Vietnam